2PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Monday, August 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are not forecast on Monday.
Synopsis
An upper low will progress eastward into Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft over much of the eastern CONUS on Monday. West of this trough, and upper ridge will remain from the Four Corners states into western TX.
At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will result in relatively stable/dry conditions over much of the central and eastern CONUS. The leading cold front and bulk of associated thunderstorm activity will stretch from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf. Western portions of the front will extend into central TX, where southerly winds will maintain a moist and marginally unstable air mass.
Early day activity may exist over KS into OK where southerly 850 mb flow may yield elevated instability atop the surface front. Additional storm development is possible south of any such activity into northwest TX, but poor lapse rates and shear aloft will limit severe potential. Otherwise, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely over much of the Intermountain West as areas of midlevel moisture persist.