2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, August 24. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Central High Plains
At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place on Sunday over much of the Great Plains and Rockies. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. At the surface, a southeast-to-northwest axis of instability, associated with a slow-moving front, is forecast to develop by afternoon from western Kansas into western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. The shortwave trough will provide large-scale ascent to aid convective development near the instability axis in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the central High Plains and move southeastward across the region. NAM forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking around 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This will likely support an isolated severe threat, with hail and marginally severe wind gusts possible from late afternoon into early evening.