11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 25. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
Synopsis
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast.
Southeast Gulf Coast States
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest.
While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day.