6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 25. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
01z Update
Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight. Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass. Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust thunderstorms are not forecast.