10AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 25. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE .
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast states this afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns.
AL/GA/FL
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front, southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.