1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, January 25. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.
20z Update
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations, are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.
AL/GA/FL
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front, southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.