6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, January 26. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Synopsis
Recent surface analysis centers an expansive 1040 mb high over OK. Cold and stable airmass and offshore trajectories associated with this high will preclude thunderstorm development across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is along and ahead of a decaying cold front as it moves through central and southern FL. Regional radar imagery currently shows some deeper convection just ahead of this front over central FL, where the dewpoints are in the 70s. However, even with this low-level moisture in place, more than isolated deep convection appears unlikely due to warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates. A few deeper updrafts capable of lightning could still occur briefly, particularly on the southeast FL Coast where high temperatures will reach the low 80s, but overall lightning coverage is still expected to be less than 10 percent.