12PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Thursday, January 29. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.
Synopsis
An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf.