1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, January 31. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight.
20Z Update
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.
Synopsis and Discussion
An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection.