12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, February 2. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night.
Synopsis/Discussion
A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture (lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should preclude thunderstorms.