11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 1. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
Synopsis
The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West, upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings.