10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, February 2. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night.
Synopsis
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development prior to the end of the period.