12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 3. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.
East TX into the lower MS Valley
A series of shortwave troughs will move through/into the base of a larger-scale trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS through the period. As this occurs, a related cold front will move southeastward across east TX into the lower MS Valley during the afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, sufficient boundary-layer moisture return (middle 50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will yield weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of the front. This will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from east TX into LA, though the weak buoyancy and limited large-scale ascent over the warm sector should limit the severe risk.