11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 3. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
Synopsis
05 UTC surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Gulf Coast into eastern TX as a surface low gradually intensifies across northwest TX. Further north, a cold front continues to advance southward into the southern Plains. A combination of isentropic ascent preceding the front and more focused lift along the front will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon from eastern TX into the lower MS River Valley and possibly into parts of the TN Valley as the front pushes southeast towards the Gulf.
Although dewpoints will likely increase to the upper 50s and low 60s by late afternoon, warm mid-level temperatures observed in 00 UTC soundings will yield modest buoyancy profiles characterized by lifted indices between -1 to -3 C. Consequently, this will limit updraft intensities and the overall potential for severe convection. Latest CAM guidance, including the typically aggressive REFS, support this idea and depict very weak signals for strong updrafts.