10AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 6. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.
Southern CA
Within the base of a large-scale trough near coastal CA, an embedded mid-level low should modestly amplify to the west of northern Baja CA by early Saturday. Cool mid-level temperatures (around -22 C at 500 mb) in conjunction with marginal boundary-layer moisture should yield scant buoyancy at peak heating Friday over parts of coastal southern CA. Weak orographic ascent across the Transverse Ranges vicinity might support a couple thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening. Overall thunder probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.