1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Saturday, February 7. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
Southeast AZ
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.
Synopsis
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ and southwest NM.
Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions. Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms as well.