1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 15. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may continue through the day into Sunday night across parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast region.
Parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast
No major changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area.
A QLCS may be ongoing Sunday morning from southeast LA into southern MS and far southwest AL, as an initially vigorous mid/upper-level trough/low and surface cyclone move eastward across a gradually moistening environment. Some threat for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado may accompany this QLCS Sunday morning, though scant buoyancy and a tendency towards gradual dampening of the primary shortwave trough and surface cyclone may result in a weakening trend with the initial QLCS.
Despite the expected weakening trend, deep-layer flow/shear across the warm sector will remain favorable for organized convection, and continued low-level moistening may allow for deep convection to redevelop near the Gulf Coast. Destabilization will likely remain limited, but if sufficient buoyancy can be maintained, then some threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado could evolve across south AL/GA and the FL Panhandle into the afternoon, and potentially spread into parts of the FL Peninsula by Sunday night.
Another area of storm redevelopment may evolve across parts of MS/AL during the afternoon and evening, in association with the primary midlevel low. The extent of recovery in the wake of the morning QLCS remains uncertain, but cooling temperatures aloft could support development of a few strong storms and potentially an isolated severe threat.