11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, February 15. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA .
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes, including potential for a strong tornado or two.
Synopsis
On Sunday, a mid-level trough moving across the Southeast will merge with an additional trough moving from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. In the wake of this trough, mid-level ridging will build across the central CONUS. A surface low associated with the mid-level trough traversing the Southeast will gradually weaken through the day before deepening somewhat Sunday night in the western Atlantic as the larger-scale trough merges.
Southeast
A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama. Weak instability is forecast ahead of this line with low 60s dewpoints. Strong low-level shear may support embedded rotation/tornado potential where the greater (250 J/kg+) MLCAPE exists. 12Z CAM guidance shows varying storm mode solutions, with some indication of the line becoming more broken through the morning while other guidance keeps it more organized. Given the ascent ahead of the mid-level trough and a persistent 40-50 knot low-level jet, expect the line to remain more organized Sunday morning and through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary threat along this line. A strong tornado is possible across southern Georgia and northern Florida Sunday afternoon where the greatest instability and strong low-level jet overlap.
12Z guidance shows some low 60s dewpoints into southern South Carolina. Therefore, given at least some weak instability in the forecast soundings, have expanded the marginal risk into southern North Carolina for the conditional tornado/damaging wind threat Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop beneath the mid-level cold pool Sunday afternoon from eastern Alabama into central Georgia as MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg develops. However, shear will be weak by this time. Therefore, some small hail may occur with this activity, but no severe weather is anticipated with these thunderstorms.