1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Monday, February 16. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUMMARY
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas on Monday, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.
Discussion
Early in the day on Monday, a strong mid-level trough and associated 100+ knot mid-level jet streak will approach the southern California Coast. Ahead of the surface low, southerly flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints northward along the southern California coast. As temperatures cool aloft over the relatively warm waters, some weak instability is expected over the water and near-coastal regions of southern California. Strong low-level flow (a 40+ knot low-level jet) and some low-level directional shear may support isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado as a line of storms moves onshore Monday late morning to afternoon. With persistent offshore flow, temperatures cool significantly inland. Therefore, any severe weather threat should be confined to immediate coastal areas.