1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, February 17. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across Pacific coastal areas and the Central Valley of California Tuesday into Tuesday night, as well as across parts of the mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Tuesday night. However, the risk for severe storms appears low.
Discussion
Continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters of the eastern Pacific will continue to support thunderstorm activity along the coastal areas on Tuesday from Oregon to southern California. Thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central California where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater instability in the central Valley.
A large cyclone will emerge across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently scouring moisture across the Gulf. However, forecast guidance does show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated instability by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. Given the strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday evening. However, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.