2PM Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 for Saturday, February 21. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR
SUMMARY
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Southeast this afternoon and evening.
Southeast States
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
Southeast States
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However, occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.