1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, February 27. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected over portions of the Southeast and Florida today. While a few strong storms may develop through this evening, the threat of organized severe thunderstorms appears low.
20z Update - Southeast
No changes have been made to the outlook at 20z. See previous discussion below for details.
Southeast
A southward-advancing cold front is decelerating this morning across the FL Panhandle and southeastern GA. This front is expected to stall across the northern FL Peninsula today as a mid-level shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery moves eastward across the Southeast. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass is underway ahead of the front, as low-level clouds have eroded across much of the FL Peninsula this morning. Relatively modest lapse rates should hinder the development of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, low-level convergence along the front is expected to remain limited. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon into the evening, focused across parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula along and south of the front. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds may occur, especially along/near the eastern FL coast, the weak instability, modest lapse rates aloft, and marginal deep-layer shear all suggest that the risk for organized severe thunderstorms should remain low today.