11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, March 1. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California Sunday afternoon and evening.
Synopsis
A strong cyclone traversing eastern Canada this morning will be followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS tomorrow. A weak trailing cold front associated with the Canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south into the Southeast and southern Plains. Isentropic ascent over the frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of OK into southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR tomorrow afternoon and evening. Although the kinematic environment is conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe thunderstorm potential. There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm across central OK during the evening hours per latest RRFS solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into OK and are aligned with recent RAP solutions environmentally. However, the consensus among other HREF members and calibrated guidance is that the RRFS is the outlier solution, which substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.
Elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected within a residual frontal zone across the southern FL Peninsula where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in place. Along the West Coast, an upper-level trough pushing into northern CA and southern OR will support isolated thunderstorms as instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a fairly moist air mass.