1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Monday, March 2. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies.
Synopsis
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at 850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.