11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, March 2. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High Plains.
Synopsis
An upper low recently observed off the northern CA coast will continue to track eastward across the northern Great Basin and into the central High Plains through Monday night. Broad-scale ascent combined with cool temperatures aloft and a modest influx of mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms from NV into the western Plains. Buoyancy will be maximized at peak heating across western to central WY, and with 30-40 knot mid-level flow in place, a few updrafts may be strong enough to support small hail. However, confidence in the overall severe risk is low owing to generally meager buoyancy profiles (characterized by lifted indices around -1 to -2 C) depicted in most morning guidance. Further east, diminishing thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period across eastern OK into AR with additional development expected within a warm advection regime later in the day and overnight across KS, MO, and IL. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected again across southern FL within an unstable air mass, but limited ascent and weak winds through much of the CAPE-bearing layer should limit the potential for organized storms.