1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, March 3. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
SUMMARY
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, including the potential for a few severe thunderstorms, are anticipated Tuesday evening into Tuesday night from parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated storms may also develop in south Florida.
Synopsis
The upper wave currently off the northern CA coast will begin ejecting into the Plains through the day Tuesday, reaching the mid-Missouri River Valley by early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary draped across OK will advance northward through the day in response to lee cyclogenesis/strengthening southerly flow. Northward moisture return into OK and southern KS will occur through the day, which should help increase buoyancy along and south of the frontal zone. A southward surge of the front is expected after 00z across KS and into northwest OK as the surface low develops northeastward in tandem with broad-scale ascent associated with the upper trough. Most 00z and 12z ensemble solutions depict moderate (40-60%) chances for precipitation across northern OK into southern and eastern KS between 00-06 UTC as the front pushes southeast. Forecast soundings from this region depict sufficient MUCAPE for deep convection, and strong flow aloft should provide adequate wind shear for organized thunderstorms with an attendant large hail, and possibly wind, threat. Confidence in the degree of destabilization remains somewhat low with NAM-based solutions depicting considerable capping and drier/cooler conditions overall. However, the ensemble QPF signal along the front coupled with reasonable potential for adequate buoyancy/shear for organized storms and convective signals in extended-range CAMs warrants at least low severe probabilities.