11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Tuesday, March 3. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX TO EASTERN KS
SUMMARY
Isolated large hail may occur during Tuesday evening into Tuesday night across a portion of the southern to central Great Plains.
Synopsis
A lower-amplitude, positive-tilt shortwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded impulses, will gradually move east from the southern Rockies/eastern Great Basin to the central Great and southern High Plains through early Wednesday. A modest lee cyclone will ripple southward across the southern High Plains, mainly in the second half of the period. An eastward-extending initial warm front will stall and oscillate back southeastward as a cold front on Tuesday night. A dryline should mix east across much of the TX Panhandle through Tuesday afternoon.
Northwest TX to eastern KS
Potential for sustaining deep convection along the dryline appears slim through late afternoon Tuesday, amid very steep mid-level lapse rates, modest boundary-layer moisture, and initially weak convergence along the boundary. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase during the evening as the surface front accelerates south, with the 06Z ECMWF and NSSL-MPAS indicative of convective development to the immediate cool side of the front in the southeast TX Panhandle vicinity. While the unconditional probability is low, there is potential for large hail within a conditionally favorable environment for a couple supercells. More probable, rather elevated convective development is anticipated farther north from northwest OK into south-central KS towards late evening into the overnight. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should support isolated severe hail. But an increasingly predominant cluster mode and southeast progression of the surface front should yield subsiding hail magnitudes downstream in the early morning Wednesday.