1PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Monday, March 2. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.
20Z Update
Thunder probabilities were removed along the NC Coast, as the low-level confluence zone and associated axis of instability has shifted offshore. Thunder probabilities were also trimmed over the MS Valley region, with the remaining probabilities focused where warm-air advection at the nose of a developing low-level jet will be strongest. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may form along sea-breeze boundaries over the southern FL peninsula, and a few lightning flashes remain possible through the remainder of the period over the Intermountain West with the eastward progression of an upper trough.
Synopsis
An upper trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale ascent associated with this upper disturbance and adequate mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the Great Basin into parts of the north-central High Plains. Scant instability will preclude a severe risk with this activity.
Farther east, isolated thunderstorms appear possible tonight as increasing low-level warm/moist advection contributes to the development of weak MUCAPE across parts of the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Farther east, convection capable of producing occasional lightning may also occur across parts of coastal NC and south FL. Weak shear and/or instability across all these regions should preclude a meaningful severe threat today.