1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Thursday, March 5. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and into Thursday night from west Texas into Kansas. Large hail appears to be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated severe gusts will also be possible.
Southern/central Plains Thursday afternoon/night
Amplification of a midlevel trough is expected near the Four Corners Thursday into Thursday night, as a downstream lee cyclone deepens across eastern CO. The deepening cyclone will draw moisture northward from TX across the southern/central Plains through early Friday in the developing warm sector. The lee trough/dryline will be located near or just west of the KS/CO and TX/NM borders by late afternoon as the cyclone deepens in place. Surface heating in cloud breaks could allow sufficient vertical mixing to weaken convective inhibition and allow isolated thunderstorm development along and just east of the dryline by late afternoon across the TX Panhandle/South Plains into southwest KS. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail near or just in excess of 2 inches in diameter. The tornado threat will be a little greater by early evening as low-level shear increases and near 60 F dewpoints surge northward from OK into KS, though the tornado threat will depend on a supercell or two persisting into late evening.
Otherwise, elevated convection will spread northeastward Thursday night as the low-level jet and associated warm/moist advection increase. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the potential for large hail with the overnight convection as far north as NE/IA.