11AM Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 for Thursday, March 5. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS
CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE
SUMMARY
Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.
Synopsis
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon. A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern NM into far western parts of TX.
Southern to central Great Plains
Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms. Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle. Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points and surface-based instability into Thursday night.
The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent.
Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could briefly accompany the more robust storms.