1PM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday, January 23. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley.
Discussion
Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night.
The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific.
There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas.
Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley
Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.