11PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, January 22. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday. This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move south into the Plains.
Southeast Florida
Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be possible across portions of far southeast Florida.
Southern California
A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too low to warrant graphical depiction at this time.