6AM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Thursday, January 22. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Synopsis and Discussion
Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy.
An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA.