U.S. Drought Monitor discussion for Thursday, January 22.
The Lower 48 States finally settled into a more tranquil weather pattern, as a ridge of high pressure settled across the West and a deep trough developed over the East. With many parts of the western U.S. reporting below-average snowpack for this time of year, the pattern change led to increasing concerns regarding Western water supply for next summer and beyond, despite robust precipitation in many areas during the first half of the winter wet season. Still, hydrologic signals were mixed, with California’s 154 primary intrastate reservoirs containing 25.9 million acre-feet of water (123% of the historic average) as 2026 began. Meanwhile, storage in the sprawling, multi-state Colorado River Basin stood at just under 17.3 million acre-feet (53% of average), reflecting long-term issues in part related to chronically elevated temperatures and a multi-decadal Southwestern drought. Farther east, the Plains served as the transition zone between mild, dry weather in the West and increasingly cold conditions in the East. The Plains’ experienced dry weather, aside from wind-driven snow showers on the northern Plains, as well as an occasionally elevated wildfire threat. Elsewhere, areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward noted cold weather, accompanied by occasional rain and snow showers. Some of the heaviest snow fell the Great Lakes States, especially in squall-prone locations. Snow also fell along and near the Atlantic Seaboard, mainly on January 17-18. As colder air became more entrenched in the Midwest and East, drought changes that had been occurring quickly in recent weeks, either due to flash drought or active winter storms, became more muted, with drought effectively “frozen in place” by chilly, mostly dry conditions. During the second half of the drought-monitoring period, sub-0°F temperatures were commonly observed across the upper Midwest and neighboring regions.
From January 23-26, an expansive and potentially dangerous winter storm will unfold from southern sections of the Rockies and Plains to the middle and southern Atlantic States, excluding areas along and near the Gulf Coast. Much of the South will face multiple weather hazards, including wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, or freezing rain), gusty winds, and unusually low temperatures. Wintry weather may extend at least as far south as central Texas and northern sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Post-storm temperatures should fall to 10°F or below along and north of a line from central Texas to northern Georgia, with particular concern for areas that lose electricity due to downed power lines from accumulations of ice and snow. Farther north, sub-0°F readings will be common as far south as the central Plains and the Ohio Valley. The storm is likely to have serious agricultural impacts, including significant stress on livestock due to exposure to cold, wind, wintry precipitation, or a combination of weather extremes. Temperatures could briefly plunge to -30°F or below from North Dakota into the upper Great Lakes region.
The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for January 27 – 31 calls for the likelihood of below-normal temperatures throughout the eastern half of the U.S., while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail in the West. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal precipitation nearly nationwide should contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions in a few areas, including southern Florida and southern and coastal Texas.
High Plains region.
Patchy expansion of dryness and drought was noted, mainly across Nebraska, Wyoming, and southern South Dakota. Due to periods of warm, windy weather, Nebraska reported that statewide topsoil moisture was rated 68% very short to short in early January, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Similarly, Wyoming’s topsoil moisture was rated 55% very short to short.
Midwest region.
Aside from occasional precipitation, including locally heavy snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes, the Midwest settled into a colder, mostly dry pattern. Any changes were generally minor, with some drought deterioration noted from southern Missouri into southern Indiana. Statewide topsoil moisture was greater than 40% very short to short in early January across Illinois and Missouri, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Meanwhile, some minor improvements were introduced in the Great Lakes region, following recent heavy precipitation and ongoing snow showers.
Northeast region.
Due to cool weather and patchy precipitation, there were few changes in the Northeastern drought depiction. Some slight improvements in the drought depiction were noted for interior locations, while parts of coastal southern New England experienced slight drought deterioration or introduction.
South region.
Worsening drought was a common theme, especially from eastern Texas into Arkansas. A small area of exceptional drought (D4) was introduced in northern Arkansas, amid a punishing period of drought that has left pastures in extremely poor condition and has left many individuals with limited surface water supplies from ponds and streams. Several weeks ago, in early January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture categorized Arkansas’ topsoil moisture as 46% very short to short—and mostly dry weather has prevailed since that report was compiled. From northern Arkansas, a continuous area of severe to extreme drought (D2 to D3) extended southwestward into northeastern Texas. Patchy D2 stretched into neighboring states, including Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Much of southern Texas, as well as southern, central, and eastern Oklahoma is experiencing moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3).
Southeast region.
Light precipitation fell during the drought-monitoring period from northern Florida to southeastern Virginia, but most locations received less than an inch. A few weeks ago, in early January, most Southeastern States reported that topsoil moisture in agricultural areas was rated at least 40% very short to short, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Drought-related impacts have included poor pasture conditions and limited surface water supplies. Due to drought and sporadic cold waves, some fall-sown crops such as winter wheat have struggled to emerge and develop. New areas of extreme drought (D3) were introduced in parts of Alabama and Georgia, while moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) was expanded in several areas.
West region.
Over the last couple of weeks, an uncomfortable silence has settled across the West. With snowpack already below average in many Western watersheds due to this winter’s preponderance of “warm” storm systems, the mid-point of the region’s snow-accumulation season has arrived with snow-water equivalencies falling farther behind normal each day. Among Western basins, only those located in the northern Rockies and neighboring areas are reporting widespread near-normal snowpack. By January 20, snow-water equivalencies were broadly less than 50% of average in Oregon (and portions of adjacent states) and the Southwest. Although many areas of the West are reporting above-average season-to-date precipitation, the anomalous winter warmth and corresponding lack of snow could have serious future implications for wildfire activity and summer water supplies. For now, however, more than half of the 11-state Western region—including all of California—is free of drought.