6PM Day 1 Convective Outlook for Friday, January 23. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.
Synopsis
Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities.
Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near -20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms can be supported.