12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Saturday, January 24. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.
Synopsis
The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night.
As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday.
South Texas Coast
As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited.